The Renew or Cancel

[caitlen]

Pushing Daisies, Eli Stone, Dirty Sexy Money, Lipstick Jungle, And Life On Mars Hang By A Thread

Posted on 18 November 2008 by Bill Gorman

The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, if you’re reading this after November 25, 2008 click here to see the latest list.

In a topsy turvy week for the Renew/Cancel Index, it seems like the future of more shows became uncertain than became certain. Multiple versions of ABCs winter schedule made available online to advertisers showed a variety of outcomes for Pushing Daisies, Eli Stone Dirty Sexy Money, and Life On Mars. As I write this the fate of those shows all still officially hangs in the balance.

It seemed pretty definitive that NBC’s Lipstick Jungle and My Own Worst Enemy were cancelled last week. Lipstick Jungle was a surprise to no one. My Own Worst Enemy getting cancelled at this point in the season was a surprise to me. However, now there is doubt about the fate of Lipstick Jungle. Is it entirely crazy fan fantasy egged on by a desperate Brooke Shields? We may know soon enough.

To summarize, at this point Pushing Daisies (ABC), Eli Stone(ABC), Dirty Sexy Money (ABC), Life On Mars (ABC) and Lipstick Jungle (NBC) all are at risk of Cancellation by January. I’d say the prognosis looks grim for *each* of them, but because ABC may not want to axe so many shows, perhaps not for *all* of them. All other shows seem safe through May.

The distortion for Fox show Indexes from the World Series which temporarily boosted Fox’s 18-49 average seems to be settling out, the Fox weekly 18-49 average this week was not too far below its season to date average, so there is unlikely to be too much more settling. It’s almost time to worry again about 2009-10 renewal for Fox shows with low Index numbers.

Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.

And for folks thinking “No way would the networks cancel all of those shows”, there were 25 scripted shows cancelled in the 2007-8 season. That is, shows that ran during 2007-8 that did not come back for 2008-9. These same networks cancelled at least 30 scripted shows that aired during 2006-7, although that’s just from a quick look at that season to date list that could suffer from a number of possible errors on my part, but the magnitude of shows cancelled was similar.

While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancellation by January, Cancellation by May, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.

PROGRAM Net STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) Network Avg. STD 18-49 Renew/ Cancel index Status

EASY MONEY (1) CW 303 1,370 0.22 cancelled

VALENTINE (1) CW 377 1,370 0.28 cancelled

CRUSOE (2) NBC 1,605 3,730 0.43 13 ep mini-series[/red]

DO NOT DISTURB FOX 2,097 3,790 0.55 cancelled

LIPSTICK JUNGLE (2) (6) NBC 2,190 3,730 0.59 cancelled?

THE EX-LIST (2) CBS 2,443 4,080 0.60 cancelled

TIL DEATH FOX 2,364 3,790 0.62 off schedule

EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS (2) CW 885 1,370 0.65

ELI STONE ABC 2,644 4,090 0.65

PUSHING DAISIES ABC 2,688 4,090 0.66

DIRTY SEXY MONEY ABC 2,731 4,090 0.67

BOSTON LEGAL ABC 2,787 4,090 0.68 final 13 ep season

LIFE - WED ONLY (4) NBC 2,556 3,730 0.69 now Wed

OLD CHRISTINE (3) CBS 2,812 4,080 0.69

THE GAME (2) CW 985 1,370 0.72

NUMB3RS (2) CBS 2,948 4,080 0.72

GARY UNMARRIED CBS 3,012 4,080 0.74

TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES FOX 2,824 3,790 0.75

KNIGHT RIDER NBC 2,791 3,730 0.75

LAW AND ORDER NBC 2,915 3,730 0.78

PRISON BREAK (5) FOX 3,095 3,790 0.82

THE UNIT CBS 3,350 4,080 0.82

GHOST WHISPERER (2) CBS 3,453 4,080 0.85

MY OWN WORST ENEMY NBC 3,162 3,730 0.85 cancelled

KATH & KIM NBC 3,273 3,730 0.88

UGLY BETTY ABC 3,600 4,090 0.88

WITHOUT A TRACE CBS 3,606 4,080 0.88

PRIVILEGED CW 1,212 1,370 0.88

CHUCK NBC 3,317 3,730 0.89

COLD CASE CBS 3,658 4,080 0.90

SAMANTHA WHO? ABC 3,669 4,090 0.90

LIFE ON MARS ABC 3,674 4,090 0.90 cancelled?

SHOWS BELOW THIS LINE LAST SEASON WERE TYPICALLY RENEWED

MY NAME IS EARL NBC 3,525 3,730 0.95

PRIVATE PRACTICE ABC 3,971 4,090 0.97

WORST WEEK CBS 4,053 4,080 0.99

ELEVENTH HOUR CBS 4,067 4,080 1.00

BONES FOX 4,275 3,790 1.13

THE BIG BANG THEORY CBS 4,679 4,080 1.15

AMERICAN DAD FOX 4,420 3,790 1.17

THE MENTALIST CBS 4,804 4,080 1.18

NCIS CBS 4,842 4,080 1.19

BROTHERS & SISTERS ABC 4,857 4,090 1.19

CSI: NY CBS 4,857 4,080 1.19

KING OF THE HILL FOX 4,601 3,790 1.21 not renewed

E.R. NBC 4,601 3,730 1.23 final season

HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER CBS 5,118 4,080 1.25

CSI: MIAMI CBS 5,227 4,080 1.28

CRIMINAL MINDS CBS 5,243 4,080 1.29

LAW AND ORDER:SVU NBC 4,818 3,730 1.29

FRINGE FOX 5,011 3,790 1.32

SUPERNATURAL CW 1,820 1,370 1.33

30 ROCK NBC 5,155 3,730 1.38

SIMPSONS FOX 5,691 3,790 1.50

GOSSIP GIRL CW 2,079 1,370 1.52

HEROES NBC 5,681 3,730 1.52

FAMILY GUY FOX 5,906 3,790 1.56

90210 CW 2,139 1,370 1.56

TWO AND A HALF MEN CBS 6,421 4,080 1.57

OFFICE NBC 5,988 3,730 1.61

SMALLVILLE CW 2,223 1,370 1.62

ONE TREE HILL CW 2,252 1,370 1.64

HOUSE FOX 6,709 3,790 1.77

CSI CBS 7,261 4,080 1.78

DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES ABC 7,969 4,090 1.95

GREY’S ANATOMY ABC 8,163 4,090 2.00

-
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. Note: Only shows that have premiered during the 2008-9 broadcast season are on this list.

(1) CW MRC Sunday - The CW has leased its entire Sunday night to Media Rights Capital (MRC). Easy Money and Valentine have been cancelled. It is reported that MRC has the right (obligation?) to program Sunday nights throughout 2008-9 on the CW. What will they do next? Stay tuned.

(2) Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. My grading technique on shows with histories on Friday (only Numb3rs and Ghost Whisperer) is that until they reach their Index values from last season they still are at risk of non-renewal. FYI, Numb3rs Index was 0.76 last year, so it’s close to safe by that measure.

(3) New Advs of Old Christine: Perhaps CBS is willing to accept low numbers in its new time slot indefinitely to build a new “comedy block”. Perhaps CBS will return Christine to the warmth and safety of Monday night and cut Worst Week or Gary Unmarried loose. And perhaps not.

(4) Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.

(5) Prison Break. Evidence that this is the final season for the show is mounting.

(6) Lipstick Jungle. While Lipstick Jungle has moved from Wednesday to Friday, this is the season to date average for both nights. If, somehow, Lipstick Jungle survives past January, I will include only its Friday average going forward. Until then, it’s not worth the work.

How did we come up with our list? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger. We’re not sure what the magic number will be this season, but I’m very confident that our index will still indicate the shows most likely to be cancelled compared to those less likely to be cancelled.

tvbythenumbers.com/2008/11/18/pushing-daisies-eli-stone-dirty-sexy-money-lipstick-jungle-and-life-on-mars-hang-by-a-thread/8379#more-8379

[SarahIvy]

I am desperately hoping Pushing Daisies isn't canceled. I adore it and it seems like it can't break out from having a hardcore but sadly small group of fans. It is by far the most creative and smart show on the major networks.

Sigh

[Techguy]

Sources tell TV Guide ABC's 3 sophomore bubble shows Dirty Sexy Money, Pushing Daisies, and Eli Stone will end when this season's 13-episode orders expire.

[caitlen]

"ABC, 1-2-3: Dirty Sexy, Daisies and Eli All Goners"

Nov 20, 2008
by Matt Mitovich

"Pop, pop, pop go all three sophomore bubbles shows at ABC."

Sources tell TVGuide.com that the network has taken a pass on greenlighting any additional episodes of Pushing Daisies, Eli Stone and Dirty Sexy Money, and that all three series will come to an end when this season's 13-episode orders expire. (ABC's other "bubble show," Life on Mars, just got an order for four additional episodes and will be moving to Wednesday nights in January.)

Daisies wrapped production on its 13th episode last week, at which point series creator Bryan Fuller said he was holding out hope that high-ranking advocates for his show would work some magic. Didn't happen. Fuller, though, has said that Ned and Chuck's story, in such a sitch, will continue on in comic-book form. So there's that.

Dirty Sexy stars William Baldwin and Seth Gabel told TVGuide.com earlier this week that they were just finishing their own 13th episode, and urged fans to tune in, or see the Darlings cash out. Like the economy, they got caught in a downward spiral.

Eli Stone was perhaps the longest shot of the three, not benefiting from the fanatical support that the fantastical Daisies did, nor possessing the sexy sheen of DSM.

Is all hope lost for fans of the above? I'm not one to extend false expectations, but an insider from at least one of the aforementioned trio urges me to remind you that as long as new episodes are on the air, there is always that slim chance that improved ratings could — could — beckon a white horse to save the day.



POLL.

Which of these "cancellations" surprises you the most?

Dirty Sexy Money

Eli Stone

Pushing Daisies

[DonnaJo]

I haven't watched any of these shows, but I'm surprised about all of them being canceled. There are so many commercials & promos constantly played for all of them that I naturally assumed they were doing well.

Of the three, I did want to give Eli Stone a try. It sounds like a positive show. Maybe a cable network will adopt it? As far as DSM - adults are getting sick of shows portraying avarice & greed. Everyone's too worried about the very real economic meltdown.

[caitlen]

Ax Falls On 3 Shows In ABC Primetime

By Nikki Finke
Thu, Nov 20th, 2008

Today, Dirty Sexy Money, Eli Stone, and Pushing Daisies were all cancelled after posting season lows among adults 18-49 this week. But ABC did order five more episodes of its new series (based on the British drama) Life On Mars. All the axed shows were marginal at best, and two were interrupted by the writers strike. Warner Bros' Pushing Daisies was an expensive experiment. It began airing with big buzz but also had early budget and production problems from trying to sandwich 70 to 170 visual effects into every episode -- so many that people considered it an unsustainable show. ABC Entertainment prez Steve McPherson called Bryan Fuller with the news: "We gave it the best shot we could." This was also the show that ABC decided not to preempt for Barack Obama's half-hour campaign commercial which every other major network aired. Dirty Sexy Money (ABC Studios/Berlanti) should have been put out of its misery last season. It's been a major primetime headache for ABC, especially the showrunner musical chairs. First, Josh Reims left last year. Then Dexter's Daniel Cerone sealed an overall deal with ABC Studios last fall and joined Dirty Sexy Money as showrunner right after the end of the writers' strike in February. Then, in June, Cerone's 3 already-shot episodes for the 2008-2009 season were thrown out (talk about an expensive decision), and he was replaced by Jon Harmon Feldman (whose Big Shots didn't last very long on ABC but who had worked with Dirty Sexy Money's exec producer Greg Berlanti on Dawson's Creek). So that was 3 showrunners in the show's short lifetime. As for Eli Stone, it was also from ABC Studios/Berlanti, and it was unwatchable.

www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/

[Ladyheather]

I will miss Eli Stone. My husband and I both watch it regularly. Good positive message, funny and sometimes profound. Pushing Daisies is good, but the writing has gone down hill a bit. Cute idea and unusual look. Miss them both

[quietfireca]

What a shame about Eli Stone! (it's the only one I've seen) It's a favourite in our home. An interesting change from crime dramas which seem to suit most of us.

I would say it hasn't had the charm of the first season. But then neither has Life. (although the last epi of Life had me roflol!)

[DonnaJo]

Has anyone seen "The Mentalist?"

It's on the list, and from what I have read, the lead character is such a Goren copycat. Supposedly he does a lot of inappropriate sniffing & nose analysis. I hate when other shows mimic our show. I hope it gets canceled.

[annabelleleigh]

To hell with broadcast television. In particular, to hell with NBC CEO Jeff Zucker and to the NBC Entertainment co-chairs (Graboff and Silverman) who -- in so many ways -- are running the network into the ground.

Except for "Law & Order" and "House" I don't watch network TV. I've looked in on a few of the proclaimed "endangered" series and found them wanting, but I'm sorry for those of you who will miss what may be -- or has been --cancelled.

My own predictions:

(1) The mothership will sail on to its 20-year landmark next season and then who knows?

(2) CBS's "Eleventh Hour" will not be saved eponymously.

AL

P.S. Reality shows are tanking! I find that great news.

P.P.S. Alas, DJ, "The Mentalist" has been landing consistently in the weekly Nielsen broadcast Top 10.

[caitlen]

Nov 23, 2008 7:26:39 GMT -5 DonnaJo said:

Has anyone seen "The Mentalist?"

It's on the list, and from what I have read, the lead character is such a Goren copycat. Supposedly he does a lot of inappropriate sniffing & nose analysis. I hate when other shows mimic our show. I hope it gets canceled.

I have seen it Dj, and he isnt a Goren copycat as you will see if you actually watch the show. It is entirely different to the Goren character and/or LOCI, not everybody and everything mimics Vincent`s character!

The character is a "Physic" type who helps police, ( nothing like Goren) without writing it up here, tune in to the show before criticizing it, you will be pleasantly surprised

To hope a show get`s canceled because of another is a bit unfair, im enjoying it, as it is "different"! So to wish its cancellation based on favoritism of another, OR actor, is quite silly. Other actors want to work too, and we want to see other characters and shows, not just one!

The actor is of course an Australian actor, who is popular, but one i have alway`s watched, he is good thats why!

[DonnaJo]

Nov 23, 2008 21:56:02 GMT -5 caitlen said:

The character is a "Physic" type who helps police, ( nothing like Goren) without writing it up here, tune in to the show before criticizing it, you will be pleasantly surprised

To hope a show get`s canceled because of another is a bit unfair, im enjoying it, as it is "different"! So to wish its cancellation based on favoritism of another, OR actor, is quite silly. Other actors want to work too, and we want to see other characters and shows, not just one!

OK, I'll give it a try. Especially if the lead actor is talented. In my own defense, the promo's for the show that I have seen do focus on very specific Goren traits, like the sniffing of bloodied hands (right out of "Shandeh."). But in all fairness, I think all of the crime dramas are now copying each other. There is only so much originality to go around. And my comment about cancellation wasn't meant to be taken so literally.

[Patcat]

THE MENTALIST has consistently gotten high ratings and is one of the few new shows to be considered a hit. I've not seen it, but the description strikes me as derivative of not only Goren but also MONK and PSYCH.

I like LIFE's lead character, and I think its leading actor Damien Lewis is a remarkably talented and charismatic actor. The show's writing is all over the place, though.

Patcat

[jeffan]

THE MENTALIST is a very good show and I try to watch it whenever possible. ELI STONE is another one to be watched. Damien Lewis is a wonderful actor and he first came to my attention when he played Soames in the FORSYTHE SAGA. He also gave an excellent performance in THE BAND OF BROTHERS. I agree Petcat that the writing is all over the place in LIFE but I do, again, tune in whenever possible as Lewis is such a good actor.

[Patcat]

From a review of the television show THE MENTALIST in the November 24 NEW YORKER (p. 123)

"And what of the mentalist's method? It turns out to be a combination of careful observation and advanced hunchology, which puts Patrick Jane squarely in the tradition of Adrian Monk (from "Monk"), Robert Goren (from "Law and Order: Criminal Intent"), and, for that matter, Sherlock Holmes."

Patcat